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Credit Card Stocks on Fire in 2012!! Capitol One Financial(COF) Options?! By: Tim Bolger

Capitol One Financial (COF) stock has been on fire in 2012 and is one of my top stock picks in the credit card/financial services space for this year. Read more on the bio of COF courtesy of Yahoo Finance: Capital One Financial Corporation operates as the bank holding company for the Capital One Bank (USA), National Association (COBNA), and Capital One, National Association (CONA), which provide various financial products and services in the United States, the United Kingdom, and Canada. It offers consumer and small business credit card lending, national closed end installment lending, and the international credit card lending services. The company also provides various non-interest bearing and interest-bearing deposits, including demand deposits, money market deposits, negotiable order of withdrawal accounts, savings accounts, certificates of deposit, and other consumer time deposits. Its loan portfolio comprises credit card loans; consumer loans, such as auto, home, and retail banking loans; and commercial loans, including commercial and multifamily real estate, middle market, specialty lending, and small-ticket commercial real estate loans. In addition, the company provides mortgage banking, treasury management, and depository services. It primarily serves consumers, small businesses, and commercial clients through branches, the Internet, and other distribution channels. The company was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in McLean, Virginia.

Why do I love Capital One Financial (COF)?? This stock has been on a tear over the last couple of years and still looks very attractive from a fundamental valuation perspective. Currently, COF trades at $56.01(2;03p.m. EST), with a trailing Price to Earnings ratio of 8.23 and has a Price to Book value of .87. The book value of COF is $65.17 a share. In comparison to Visa (V), currently trading at $118.06 (2:04 p.m. EST), which has a trailing Price to Earnings ratio of 20.90 and has a Price to Book value of 2.94. The book value of V is $40.61 a share and is trading at a significant premium based on the Price to Book metric.  However, V is still an amazing growth story and it’s extremely important to note that V has zero exposure to losses from consumer defaults on credit card debt. This is in contrast to COF, which has great exposure to consumer defaults, because it lends alot of its own capital. Fortunately, for COF, consumer defaults have been declining as the global economy continues to improve and that has helped propel the stock even higher.

I love Visa (V) stock as well and would be a buyer of this stock under $110 per share. I believe V may run to $150 a share in 2012 and is truly another amazing success story in the San Francisco Bay Area. From a valuation perspective, I am a bigger proponent of owning shares of COF right now. COF could run to $80 in the next twelve months and next stop may be $100 per share…Legendary Hedge Fund Manager and Billonaire investor: John Paulson of Paulson & Company Inc., is one of the largest shareholders of COF, with his managed funds owning 9,420,000 shares of COF.

Capitol One Financial (COF) reports earnings on April 19, 2012. Analysts are anticipating a great quarterly report from COF. Will the company blow past Analyst earnings estimates?? And, what is the Options play on COF ahead of earnings? As you can see from the COF data below, courtesy of Yahoo Finance, COF has beat analyst expectations in three of their last four quarterly earnings reports. Clearly, the weakest financial report was their most recent one in December of 2011, in which they missed Analyst earnings expectations by 43.60%. Ouch! Yes, that was a terrible earnings miss, but I think this upcoming quarterly earnings report is going to be stellar and only time will tell the real story…Visa reported blow out numbers and I think COF earnings will thrill investors as well!!

Earnings History Mar 11 Jun 11 Sep 11 Dec 11
EPS Est 1.55 1.71 1.68 1.56
EPS Actual 2.21 1.97 1.77 0.88
Difference 0.66 0.26 0.09 -0.68
Surprise % 42.60% 15.20% 5.40% -43.60%

 

Trade#1: I would consider buying the Capitol One Financial(COF) $57.50 strike Call Options for $1.00 with an April 20, 2012 expiration. Attached are the COF Options chains with an April 20, 2012 expiration date courtesy of Yahoo Finance:http://finance.yahoo.com/q/op?s=COF+Options. If I buy 10 Call Option contracts, it will cost me $1,000 plus trading fees to get long exposure to 1,000 shares of COF at $57.50. I think that COF stock could trade to $65 per share if the company beats Analyst earnings expectations next month and gives an upbeat earnings guidance for the full year of 2012. Additionally, any positive comments by management on the conference call about a continued decline in consumer credit card defaults, would be another catalyst to propel COF stock much higher. If COF trades to $65 a share by the expiration of these Call Options, this trade will be worth at least $7,500 ($750 per contract x 10 contracts= $7,500 minus trading fees). Good luck COF bulls and remember that Options trading is very risky and to always consult your investment advisor before buying/selling any equity securities and/or Options contracts.

 

Trade#2: For the longer term bull in COF, I would consider buying the COF $57.50 strike Call Options for $3.50 per contract with a Sept 21, 2012 expiration date. Attached are the COF Options chains with a Sept 21, 2012 expiration date courtesy of Yahoo Finance: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/op?s=COF&m=2012-09. I can buy 10 Call Option contracts for $3,500, in which I will be paying a premimum for more time value to allow COF shares to potentially climb much higher over the next several months. If the shares of COF trade to $70 a share over the next several months, this trade will be worth at least $12,500.  Good luck to all of the COF Bulls and stay tuned to http://www.Optionshoney.com for more monster Options trades!

Check out the Technical Chart on Capitol One Financial below (COF) courtesy of FinViz:

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Bull Market Turns Green in Late Trade!! Visa Call Options Active Ahead of Earnings! By: Tim Bolger

After being in the red most of the day, all of the major U.S. stock indexes turn Green in late trade…The Bulls are in control of this market and stocks continue to grind higher.  Apple(AAPL) is hitting another record high stock price, with an intraday high of $475.15.  Yup, Aapl is approaching a market capitalization of 1/2 trillion U.S. Dollars…and that Tech giant is amazing!! Stock runs to $550 in 2012 in my opinion.  Sorry Exxon Mobile…

About Visa

Visa(V) reports after the bell and I am long the V $110 and $115 strike Feb 17, 2012 Call Options into earnings. Attached is the Feb 17, 2012 V Options Chains courtesy of Yahoo Finance: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/op?s=V+Options.  Check out the volume on the Feb 17, 2012 $110 and $115 strike V Call Options and prices jumping ahead of earnings today after the bell!! I took some profits off the table earlier today on a few of my Visa options contracts and I am hoping for a big earnings beat!! Visa is rallying this afternoon around 1% and the stock is approaching a record high price. I think V could run to $150 a share in 2012 and I am hopeful for an upbeat full year 2012 earnings and revenue guidance that beats the street expectations after the bell!! Keep an eye on BAC, GS, JPM, GNW, and C. All of these financial stocks are set to fly in 2012 and still have huge upside potential…Stay tuned for more of the Options and Market buzz at Optionshoney.com. See below a ten day chart on V courtesy of Fidelity Investments:

Chart

OptionsHoney on Fire!! Call Options on Visa and KKR Financial Holdings Ahead Of Earnings?! By: Tim Bolger

It has been an amazing few weeks for everyone reading Optionshoney.com and jumping in on some of my Options plays!!  I hope everyone is both enjoying my posts and making lots of honey ( i mean money) on my investment research and Options plays.  GNW, GS,  AAWW, POT, DANG, AVL, HL, etc have all been huge winners in 2012 and I have never been more focused in my entire life on hitting home runs…  My 4-5 years of following a majority of the stocks that I am designing Options trades on is starting to pay off tenfold.  I conduct rigorous fundamental research analysis on all of these companies that I post on and I follow the technicals closely as well… GNW and GS being the biggest returns thus far in 2012…

What is my Options play now?! I love Visa and KKR Financial Holdings ahead of earnings.  Both companies are headquartered in the San Francisco Bay Area and that is a place I call home…After Mastercard smashed earnings estimates this past week, I am long the $110 and $115 strike Feb Call Options on Visa(V). Attached is the Feb 17, 2012 Options Chain on V Call/Put Options courtesy of Yahoo Finance: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/op?s=V+Options.  If V blows past estimates on Feb 8, 2012 and investors pile into shares, this could be a massive Options trade!!! More positive V news at: Visa Tops One M Chip Cards In The U.S.
DJ Realtime News – 8:00 AM ET 02/06/2012.

I am also long KKR Financial(KFN)  into earnings after the bell today. Check out the company at:   http://www.kkrfinancial.com. I own the April 2012 KFN $10 strike Call Options for a nickel and the April 2012 KFN $9 strike Call Options for .25 cents.  Here is the Options Chain for the April 2012 Call/Put Options on KFN courtesy of Yahoo Finance: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/op?s=KFN&m=2012-04. KFN is rallying a few percent today ahead of earnings and I am looking for this stock to break out to the upside on a good earnings report after the bell today.  KFN is trading at $9.22 right now and is up 21 cents on a negative day across all the major U.S. stock indexes. KFN is headquartered in lovely San Francisco and is poised to pop.  KFN has a trailing P/E of 5.1 and pays an 8% dividend.  Yes, this is a great value stock and pays an awesome dividend. I think this stock could easily trade to $17-20 dollars in a couple of years.  Go KFN Bulls…and who doesn’t love getting paid an 8% return on your money, while you wait for appreciation in this stock?!!

A profile on KFN courtesy of Yahoo finance:  KKR Financial Holdings LLC, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a specialty finance company with expertise in a range of asset classes. It primarily invests in financial assets, such as below investment grade corporate debt, including senior secured and unsecured loans, mezzanine loans, high yield corporate bonds, and distressed and stressed debt securities; marketable equity securities; and private equity. The company also invests in other asset classes, including natural resources and real estate. Its corporate debt investments are held in collateralized loan obligation (CLO) transactions that the company uses as long term financing for these investments. The senior secured notes issued by the CLO transactions are owned by unaffiliated third party investors and the company owns the majority of the mezzanine and subordinated notes in the CLO transactions. KKR Financial Advisors LLC serves as the manager of the company. KKR Financial Holdings LLC was founded in 2004 and is based in San Francisco, California.   Check out the ten day technical chart courtesy of Fidelity Investments on V and KFN below:

Chart

Genworth Financial (GNW) Blows Past Q42011 Wall St. Earnings Estimates!! Stock Surges! Call Options Jump!! By: Tim Bolger

Thought I would make a quick post here to remind my Optionshoney readers and traders of my huge market call on Genworth Financial (GNW) prior to the earnings release last night after the bell. Attached is my previous post on 1/26/12 suggesting traders buy GNW Call Options on the stocks weakness that day ahead of the upcoming earnings release last night: https://optionshoney.wordpress.com/2012/01/26/gnw-earnings-on-feb-2-2012-buy-call-options-and-sell-put-options-on-stock-weakness-today/

GNW is the Biggest Gainer this morning in the S & P 500*Genworth shares shump 17%, S&P 500 best MarketWatch–9:36 AM. Mortgage delinquencies declined 73% year over year and GNW came in with a Q42011 earnings of 22 cents diluted earnings per share(EPS), beating the street expectations by 4 cents! All of this translated into big money made this morning on my previous post suggesting buying the 7 and 8 strike March 17, 2012 GNW Call Options! Go Bulls. Jumping with Joy this morning that’s for sure… Lock in your profits this morning or hold tight for a bigger upside move and more money made on these Call Options? If you own a bunch of contracts, it might be smart to take 30% off the table and lock in some huge profits made over night…Or just hold tight and ride this baby higher!! If GNW breaks above $10 and continues to move higher with financials, this stock may run to $12 in the next 30 days!! Stay tuned for more honey calls and mega options plays at Optionshoney.com. Yeah baby!!! Are you starting to feel the buzz??? There is alot of honey brewing on this site…Can you feel it?? This is a very exciting day for me and many other lovers of GNW. Remember at 9.25 a share, GNW is still cheap for long term investors. GNW has a book value of close to $33 a share.  Check out the 10 day chart below on GNW courtesy of Fidelity Investments:

Chart

GNW Earnings on Feb 2, 2012! Buy Call Options and Sell Put Options on Stock Weakness Today!? By: Tim Bolger

I discussed the big run up in Genworth Financial(GNW) over the past few weeks in a previous post on Optionshoney.com.  The broader stock market indexes are all in slightly negative territory this afternoon as gold and silver continue to march higher!!! What is the play on GNW into earnings next week!? I am personally sticking with my bullish call on GNW and want to have long exposure going into earnings next week.

What is the Options play?

Options Trade#1: I would think about buying the GNW March 17, 2012 7 and 8 strike Call Options. Gnw shares are trading down around 4% today and I would be a buyer of these options at 1.08 and .50 cents a contract. I can purchase 10 contracts for a $1.08 ($1.08 x 100 shares per contract x 10 contracts=$1,080) and 20 contracts for .50 cents (.50 x 100 shares per contract x 20 contracts=$1,000) for a total cost of $2,080 plus trading fees. For a few thousand dollars, I will get long exposure to 3000 shares of GNW going into earnings next week.  That is called leverage with purchasing Call Options. Buying 3000 shares of GNW stock today would cost me close to $23,100. If they beat the street and give any positive signals about a rapid decline in mortgage defaults or a housing recovery, this trade will be very profitable. If they miss and the stock tanks, I could lose a total of $2,080 plus fees on this trade. Remember options are very risky and extremely volatile.  Please remember to consult your investment advisor before making any stock or options purchases.

Options Trade#2: I would also be a seller of the Feb 18, 2012 7 strike Put Options for .30 cents a contract. If I sell 20 contracts I will credit $600 to my brokerage account. Worst case scenario, I get exercised on the shares and I have to purchase 2000 shares of GNW at $7 for $14,000 plus fees. By selling the Put Options I will reduce the cost of buying the 2000 shares by the $600 credit to my brokerage account.  Best case scenario, they blow out earnings next week and I keep the $600 without having to buy the shares…However, my long term outlook and price target on the stock is 17, so I like owning the stock at these levels.  The book value of GNW shares is close to $28 a share…Good luck Longs!! Till next time on Optionshoney.com.

5 Year Chart on GNW courtesy of Fidelity Investments:

Chart

Genworth Financial(GNW) Roaring Higher! Does Housing Bottom in 2012? By: Tim Bolger

Genworth Financial is a financial holding company, with its core business focused on selling insurance and additionally provides wealth management, investment, and financial solutions for individuals in the U.S. and around the World.  The three main facets of the business are: Retirement and Protection, International, and U.S. Mortgage Insurance.  See the full profile at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=GNW+Profile.  The company has been very profitable historically, but the black swan events of the U.S. housing crisis and an unprecedented amount of defaults on mortgage loans that the company had insured led to alot of bleeding for GNW shareholders the last few years.  I have been following the stock for four years and I am beginning to see alot of value in the stock.  I believe that GNW will make it out of this housing mess alive and that it is well positioned to profit from a recovery in housing.  I strongly feel that long term investors buying more GNW shares on this temporary weakness in share price and peaking number of mortgage defaults will be rewarded in 2-3 years when the storm blows over.

GNW has been crushed over the past few years and has a high beta of 2.9 for all those momentum players out there.  I think that housing bottoms in the next 12-15 months and a significant decline in U.S. and European mortgage defaults would be great news for GNW investors.  Once the Mortgage insurance unit at GNW stabilizes and starts making money again, this will be the major catalyst and turning point for GNW stock to soar much higher.

From a deep value investor standpoint, currently GNW trades at $8.22 with a .24 Price to Book, .37 Price to Sales, and has a forward Dec 31, 2012 Price to Earnings of 6.5.  Those are extremely cheap stock valuation numbers that greatly support my thesis for buying GNW shares for the long term.  This stock could trade back to $24 a share and still be trading at only .75 book value. Wow!! Good luck to all of you Bulls…

GNW has rallied over 20% in the past 30 days.  I think the party for GNW shareholders has just begun.  Several financial stocks are rallying this week.  Check out my post yesterday on Goldman Sachs here https://optionshoney.wordpress.com/2012/01/18/goldman-sachsgs-call-options-active-on-q42011-earnings-beat-by-tim-bolger/ . Any traders that bought GS call options on my previous note made lots of money overnight as GS continues to rally higher today. Bank of America and several other financial stocks are up big again today as well.

GNW reports earnings on Feb 2, 2012.  Remember it is always a gamble to buy a stock before earnings releases, but I think GNW will beat Wall St. Analyst expectations and therefore, I want to own the stock and Call Options prior to the earnings release.  If they beat the street, the stock could sail 10% higher on positive news, especially on any positive report on a decline in mortgage defaults for their Mortgage Insurance business.  What is the Options Play on GNW?

Options Trade#1: If you are bullish on GNW going foward and would like to get long exposure to a continued rise in GNW shares, I  would think about buying the Mar 16, 2012 9 and 10 strike Call Options.  If GNW blows out earnings on Feb 2, 2012 these contracts will double or triple in value very quickly.  Remember that if GNW has a poor earnings report, these contracts will likely lose 30 to 50% on a bad report.  Alot depends on the EPS for the quarter and any forward looking comments by management that the housing mess could be nearing an end and any improvements in there mortgage insurance business. Attached are the Options Chains for this hypothetical trade courtesy of YahooFinance.  http://finance.yahoo.com/q/op?s=GNW&m=2012-03  I like the March 9 strike call options at a price of .30 cents and the March 10 strike call options for .09 cents.

Options Trade #2: For a more conservative and longer term trade, I also like buying the GNW Jan 18, 2013 7.50 Call Options for 1.90 a contract. Good luck to all and stay tuned for more news on GNW and the financials. Trading involves inherent risks and please consult your financial advisor before buying or selling any stocks/options. Optionshoney.com disclaimer.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=GNW+Basic+Tech.+Analysis&t=3m

Chart forGenworth Financial Inc. (GNW)

Goldman Sachs(GS) Call Options Active on Q42011 Earnings Beat!! By: Tim Bolger

Goldman Sachs(GS) is arguably the most powerful and innovative investment firm on planet Earth and runs Wall St. in my opinion.  Run by Wall St. legend Lloyd Blankfein (CEO of GS), they are at the forefront of several capital markets deals, stellar traders, have an amazing advisory services business, investment management, investment banking, etc.  Many of the smartest financial professionals in the world flock to Goldman for an opportunity to make millions of dollars.  If you work at Goldman, in my opinion you are the creme de la creme of financial services pros…When Goldman talks, investors listen…whether they like the news they are hearing or not. GS can move markets with their fundamental research and analysis of the markets.  GS is also brilliant on the technical side of trades as well and I think they are among the best trading firms in the world…they definitely have a spectacular track record in that department…

Despite their brilliant fleet of financial wizards, GS stock had a terrible year in 2011 alongside a majority of financial stocks and declined over 45%. Today, they beat Wall St. earnings estimates and the stock is up over 5% on big volume. GS earned $1.01 Billion in Q4 2011 and had Earnings Per Share(EPS) of $1.84 for the quarter. Fourth quarter EPS beat the street by a whopping 60 cents a share and investors are reacting very positively to this quarterly news report and piling into both the shares of stock and options contracts. Is the slide in GS shares over?? Is it time to get in the shares for the long term??  I would argue that owning the shares anywhere around a $100 is a great buying opportunity for longer term investors who believe in both the survival of Wall Street and the global capital markets…I certainly do and GS will be one of the biggest and most powerful whales in the sea. Businesses need capital for growth/survival in difficult economic cycles and to compete in this ever fast changing world…

GS Call Options are very active today and might be time to load up…Check out the front month GS 105 strike Jan 20,2012 Call Options being bought like hot cakes today as investors pile in to position for a bigger move up in the shares over the next few days.  Here is the options chain for Jan 20, 2012:  http://finance.yahoo.com/q/op?s=GS+Options. This is a very risky but potentially lucrative trade for those traders with a hunger for risk and is a trade being executed by many professional options traders and savvy investors today.  A more conservative play would be to think about buying the April 20, 2012 110 or 115 strike Call Options on GS to position yourself for a continued rise in the shares. Here is the GS April 20, 2012 Options chains:  http://finance.yahoo.com/q/op?s=GS&m=2012-04. GS traded close to 175 last year and definitely has alot of room to run if the stock continues to gain momentum and more positive investor sentiment. If a few analysts upgrade the stock as well, that would be very favorable for GS shares and could easily send the shares higher to 125+ in the next couple of months…We shall see and only time will tell the story… On a bearish note, the markets may be nearing a short term top and if the market falls, GS may decline with the rest of the equity markets…We might want to wait on the side line for a pullback in the shares and the overall markets before jumping into this trade on GS. Remember patience and timing is key to making successful Options trades…And yes alot of luck is involved in making money with Options as well…No investor or trader has a magic crystal ball that will tell for certain what actually will happen on Wall Street or to any individual stocks for that matter. Check out the 5 day chart on GS courtesy of YahooFinance below. Big volume today and the shares are spiking to the upside!! Optionshoney.com disclaimer.  Until next time folks. Stay tuned for more…

—Tim Bolger

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=GS&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=

Chart forThe Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS)

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